SEC. 1236.

Review of the analytical basis for United States force posture adjustments in Europe

DIVISION A · TITLE XII: Matters relating to Foreign Nations · SUBTITLE D: Matters relating to Europe

Source
SECTION TEXT · SEC. 1236.

(a) Report

Not later than 90 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, in coordination with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, shall submit to the congressional defense committees a report that includes—

(1)

the analytical framework, analysis of alternatives, war-gaming activities and other operational assessments, intelligence assessments, and operational and strategic risk assessments used by the Department of Defense in conducting the review of global force posture undertaken during development of the national defense strategy most recently prepared pursuant to section 113(g) of title 10, United States Code, specifically as it pertained to the area of responsibility of the United States European Command; and

(2)

an explanation of how and to what extent the analytical framework, analysis of alternatives, war-gaming activities and other operational assessments, intelligence assessments, and operational and strategic risk assessments described in paragraph (1) informed and were consistent with changes to United States force posture in the area of responsibility of the United States European Command implemented after January 20, 2025.

(b) Elements

The report required under subsection (a) shall include the following:

(1)

A description of the modeling assumptions and analytic parameters used in the review to evaluate United States force posture in the area of responsibility of the United States European Command, including—

(A)

force-sizing constructs and campaign planning assumptions;

(B)

logistics, sustainment, strategic mobility, contested deployment, and reinforcement assumptions;

(C)

assumptions relating to United States and allied force availability, readiness, reinforcement timelines, munitions expenditures, prepositioned stocks, and strategic lift capacity;

(D)

adversary force readiness, mobilization and reinforcement timelines, and operational objectives; and

(E)

assumptions relating to simultaneous or overlapping theater demands.

(2)

A comprehensive description of the force-planning scenarios, tabletop exercises, and war-gaming inputs used in the review to evaluate United States force posture in the area of responsibility of the United States European Command.

(3)

An assessment of the alternative force posture options considered during the review and the analytical criteria used to evaluate and compare such options, including cost, host nation and allied burden-sharing contributions, the relative operational effects of rotational and permanently stationed forces, and the operational implications of positioning forces closer to potential contingency areas along NATO’s eastern flank.

(4)

The intelligence assessments and threat analyses used to inform the Department of Defense’s review of United States force posture in the area of responsibility of the United States European Command.

(5)

An assessment of capability gaps associated with combatant commander campaign plans and NATO regional plans as well as the associated operational and strategic risks identified by the Department of Defense in its review of United States force posture in the area of responsibility of the United States European Command.

(6)

A description of how the analytical framework, analysis of alternatives, war-gaming activities and other operational assessments, intelligence assessments, and operational and strategic risk assessments used by the Department of Defense in the review evaluated the ability of NATO allies and partners to mitigate identified capability gaps and associated operational and strategic risks, including projected timelines for capability development and fielding.

(7)

A description of the coordination undertaken during the initial review in the development and application of the analytical framework, analysis of alternatives, war-gaming activities and other operational assessments, intelligence assessments, and operational and strategic risk assessments described in paragraphs (1) through (6), with—

(A)

the Joint Staff, the Military Departments, and the Commander of United States European Command;

(B)

the Department of State;

(C)

the intelligence community; and

(D)

NATO military authorities and NATO allies and partners in Europe and Canada.

(8)

An assessment of the extent to which the analytical framework, analysis of alternatives, war-gaming activities and other operational assessments, intelligence assessments, and operational and strategic risk assessments described in paragraphs (1) through (6) were consistent with United States force posture adjustments within the area of responsibility of the United States European Command implemented after January 20, 2025, including—

(A)

an assessment of each such adjustment to United States force posture in Europe during such period;

(B)

an assessment of the operational, strategic, fiscal, and risk-based justification for each such adjustment;

(C)

an identification of any deviations from the initial review’s analytical framework, analysis of alternatives, war-gaming activities and other operational assessments, intelligence assessments, and operational and strategic risk assessments in the analysis underlying such adjustments, including the rationale for any such deviation;

(D)

an identification of any deviations from military interagency assessments or non-concurrence about such adjustments, including the rationale for any such deviation; and

(E)

an evaluation of the implications of each such adjustment for United States national security interests, NATO’s deterrence and defense posture, and execution of combatant commander campaign plans and NATO regional plans.

(c) Form

The report required under subsection (a) shall be submitted in unclassified form, but may include a classified annex.

(d) Independent assessment by the Government Accountability Office

(1) Assessment required

Not later than 180 days after the submission of the report required under subsection (a), the Comptroller General of the United States shall submit to the congressional defense committees an independent assessment of—

(A)

the analytical framework, analysis of alternatives, war-gaming activities and other operational assessments, intelligence assessments, and operational and strategic risk assessments used in conducting the review of global force posture undertaken during development of the national defense strategy most recently prepared pursuant to section 113(g) of title 10, United States Code, specifically as it pertained to the area of responsibility of the United States European Command;

(B)

the conclusions drawn from such review of global force posture; and

(C)

the extent to which such analytical framework, analysis of alternatives, war-gaming activities and other operational assessments, intelligence assessments, and operational and strategic risk assessments informed and were consistent with changes to United States force posture in the area of responsibility of the United States European Command implemented after January 20, 2025.

(2) Elements

The assessment under paragraph (1) shall include—

(A)

an evaluation of the completeness, rigor, and methodological validity of the analytical framework, assumptions, scenarios, intelligence inputs, and analysis of alternatives;

(B)

an assessment of the consistency between the analytical conclusions and actual posture decisions implemented after January 20, 2025;

(C)

a review of the sensitivity of conclusions to key assumptions and variables;

(D)

an identification of any gaps, limitations, or sources of analytical risk; and

(E)

an evaluation of the implications of each such adjustment for United States national security interests, NATO’s deterrence and defense posture, and execution of combatant commander campaign plans and NATO regional plans.

(3) Access to information

The Secretary of Defense shall provide the Comptroller General with timely access to all data, assumptions, models, briefings, analyses, memoranda, recommendations, dissenting views, decision memoranda, and other information necessary to carry out the assessment required under this subsection, including classified information, consistent with applicable law.